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Mike Littwin

"The pump don't work 'cause the vandals took the handles."

Littwin: This could be the end of Obamacare, and Cory Gardner’s not feeling so good himself

Littwin: This could be the end of Obamacare, and Cory Gardner’s not feeling so good himself

Whatever else I’ve had to say about Cory Gardner over the years, I’ve never once said, or even thought, that he wasn’t a shrewd and able politician. But now it may be time for a rethink.

I mean, is he really prepared to put his political career at risk by voting for an ill-conceived, ill-considered healthcare bill that is not only “mean,” as Donald Trump has so eloquently put it, but is also wildly unpopular with voters across the country and certainly in Colorado?

Not surprisingly, he isn’t saying. Gardner says he’s “reviewing,” which is either an attempt at looking thoughtful or a signal of real trouble for Mitch McConnell’s bill. As I may have mentioned before, if good-soldier Gardner is a ‘no’ vote, there is no healthcare bill. And as I should mention now, good-soldier Gardner — not up for re-election until 2020 — is currently voting with Trump at a 95 percent clip.

This is a bill, though, that Republicans, including Gardner, are having trouble defending. And no wonder. As the estimable Sarah Kliff at Vox explains, the bill would require low-and-middle-income Americans to pay significantly more than they did under Obamacare in order to get far less. What they would get is higher deductibles, higher co-pays, higher premiums. And that may be the best that can be said for it.

The bill is a full-on assault on Medicaid, capping subsidies, limiting their growth and eventually causing millions to lose coverage. The losers here will be, uh, children, people in nursing homes, people with disabilities and on and on. You may remember that Gardner signed onto a letter voicing concerns about Medicaid, which covers 30 million children and two of three nursing home residents. It’s hard to see how any of those concerns have been answered.

And it gets worse. The bill allows states to waive the essential-health-benefits provision that requires insurers to offer coverage for, you know, essential health benefits. It does get rid of the unpopular individual mandate but replaces it with absolutely nothing. That means young and healthy people are far less likely to be part of the pool helping to pay for older and not-so-healthy people.

Oh, and there’s this: The bill also serves up a huge tax cut for the wealthy, to be paid for by—wait for it—cutting services for the poor.  It is, as Democrats like to say, a massive wealth redistribution plan. Or as Elizabeth Warren puts it: “Blood money.”

This bill, which is polling somewhere between 20 and 30 percent, could never possibly pass but for two things: Republicans have been promising to repeal and replace Obamacare for seven years, and Trump, who has no idea what’s in the bill, thinks it would be humiliating not to pass something, even if it doesn’t have “heart.” So there it is, like it or not, and most people seem to be in the or-not camp.

The Senate version of Trumpcare is no better than the terrible House version of the bill that Trump celebrated in the Rose Garden before deciding it was too “mean.”  That’s one White House moment, by the way, they do have on tape.

And not only is it a terrible bill, Republicans are pretty open about the fact, having drafted it in secret and refusing to hold any hearings. It was almost as if they were begging fake-news punditry to point out the irony that Republicans had complained for years that Obamacare had been rammed down their throats. Now, in the updated 2017 version of bill-ramming, you apparently do it while blindfolded.

So, what will Gardner do? He told The Denver Post’s Mark Matthews that he doesn’t understand why there’s such a rush to get a vote on the bill, which is scheduled for late next week. That’s an easy question to answer, of course. McConnell is rushing the bill because that’s the only way it could pass.

You’d think that Gardner, who’s definitely not in a hurry, would know that much since he was one of 13 senators assigned to craft the bill. But Gardner told The Post his role was actually limited to providing input, including, he said, helping to make sure that children with disabilities and certain other complications would be exempted from Medicaid limits. One problem with that. If Medicaid funds are limited, and they would be, that simply means some other child is necessarily excluded.

I’m not sure what to think about the bill’s prospects. Republicans can afford to lose only two senators or the bill is dead. So let’s put Gardner aside. Four senators from the right — Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and Ron Johnson — have withheld support so far, saying the bill is too much like Obamacare and therefore, in effect, not mean enough. I don’t know if that’s anything more than a bargaining ploy, although Paul is the most likely to defect. I’d bet strongly against the other three.

From the moderate end, Susan Collins sounds like a ‘no,’ but she often sounds like a ‘no’ and then votes ‘yes.’ Nevada’s Dean Heller, who’s up for re-election in 2018 and who is already considered vulnerable, has to be shaky. There are a few other moderates in play.

And Gardner? How much pressure would he have to feel before he’d defect, even in a blue-ish state, and vote to save Obamacare? OK, I can’t imagine it either. We all remember Gardner’s letter-waving opposition to Obamacare and the 50-plus times he has voted to repeal the law. The letter waving helped make him senator. The repeal votes were no more than show votes, though, with no chance of becoming law.

But this is the real thing. The stakes are real. The pressure is real. The potential human cost is real. The CBO’s scoring of the House bill estimated 23 million people would be made to lose their insurance. It’s just that real. The CBO score of the Senate bill is due early next week, and the losses will again surely be in the many millions. That’s all that’s at risk, which is why you can be sure Gardner will still be reviewing up until the moment he has to actually cast his vote.

 

Photo by Gage Skidmore for Creative Commons on Flickr.

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About the Author

Mike Littwin

He has covered Dr. J, four presidential inaugurations, six national conventions and countless brain-numbing speeches in the New Hampshire and Iowa snow.
mlittwin@coloradoindependent.com | Twitter @mike_littwin

5 Comments

  1. buford on said:

    I am really starting to think that Gardner has been corrupted by the Koch money machine, along with the russian dark money machine…He won’t listen to anyone in Colorado…The media still refuses to report on this…

  2. Wordenson on said:

    As one of the Senators assigned to craft the bill, his role was “limited to providing input”? Has he really been rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic since April? He should either be thought of as highly culpable and held accountable for despicable actions or thought of as highly ineffectual and held accountable for incompetence. Periodically searching the Congressional Record for “Gardner” over the last six months and reading how strongly he supports Senator McConnell and President Trump, I have to believe the former.

  3. Mary Taylor on said:

    Keep calling his office and get your friends and family to do the same. Write a letter to the editor. Park yourself and a group of people outside his office and alert the press. No matter what keep after him. I live in Maryland and we have 2 democratic senators who will vote no. I personally have a republican representative who is apart of the Freedom Caucus. We are on him like white on rice. We need to keep the heat on these people, otherwise this legislation will slip through like the house bill did :(

  4. Don Lopez on said:

    Elections have consequences.

    “Hiding news that doesn’t fit an ideological or a partisan agenda is perhaps the worst form of media bias. And it’s one more reason the public holds the press is such low esteem.” – Investor’s Business Daily

    “(Mr. Trump) won’t be president. He was sliding in the polls before the video, and the video now means that he has no way to climb back. Which independent voter, which suburban woman, which Main Street Republican on the fence is going to vote for Trump now?” – Mike Littwin

    }{

    It was an historic week for Mr. Littwin . The level of candor he displayed in both his June 21st (“Dems wonder when Trump Effect kicks in and they stop getting kicked in the teeth”) and June 23rd columns (“This could be the end of Obamacare, and Cory Gardner’s not feeling so good himself”)was startling. No obfuscating, no equivocating, no spinning and absolutely no attempt to put lipstick on a pig. His resounding and unambiguous analysis of the results in Georgia’s 6th Congressional district special election was straightforward, honest and ignored nothing, “Don’t fall for the spin. Karen Handel’s five-point win in the Georgia special House election was a crushing defeat for Democrats”.

    Mr. Littwin’s observation about a “strange odor coming from the White House” was a little unfair. It took eight years for that swampy smell to permeate the entire White House and no one could realistically expect President Trump to air it out completely in less than six months.

    The 24/7 mainstream media attacks on President Trump’s relationship with Russia based upon nothing more than innuendo and leaks serves only to strengthen our president’s support. There’s also this from thehill.com

    “Frustrated Democrats hoping to elevate their election fortunes have a resounding message for party leaders: Stop talking so much about Russia.”

    But here’s the real shocker: Mr. Littwin complimented—-that’s right, complimented—-Senator Gardner calling him “a shrewd and able politician”. What’s going on here?

    Mr. Littwin’s candor even extended to Republican efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare. He made no this-bill-could-never-pass prediction, and no if-this-bill-passes-Democrats-will-regain-control-of-the-House forecast. Mr. Littwin actually admitted—-and I hope you’re sitting down—-”I’m not sure what to think about the bill’s prospects”. Seriously, he really said that!!

    Has Mr. Littwin had an epiphany? Did Mr. Littwin actually write these columns? Has Mr. Littwin (gasp) mellowed? Has Mr. Littwin embraced reality?

    I don’t know but it’s very refreshing and long overdue. Well done, Mr. Littwin!

    November 08, 2016

    “’Cause I don’t have no use
    For what you loosely call the truth” – Tina Turner

    Green light a Vet
    Folds of Honor
    Special Operations Warriors Foundation
    Foundational

    Veterans Day – November 11, 2017

  5. JohnInDenver on said:

    Gardner’s waffling is fascinating.

    If he wants time to consider, he should make it clear that he will join with other Senators to insist on more than the 10 hours of debate that Sen. McConnell has set.

    If he was sincere earlier this year about the protection of Medicaid and Medicare populations, he needs to clarify if his advice was taken and incorporated into the bill or not. I’ve been on a limited media diet for a couple of weeks, but I have yet to see there is a credible and politically viable transition plan that would allow Colorado and other states to maintain Medicaid support at current levels.

    When even the Denver Business Journal is printing “Opinion: AHCA is a bad deal for America,” you know there’s a substantial problem with the legislation. Perhaps Sen. Gardner will hear enough objections from Republican viewpoints to justify at least a delay for substantial debate and amendments. Enough wavering, and perhaps we will not have a vote this next week after all.

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