Iowa Caucus: Prognostications, Results and Breaking News

Get the latest caucus information, live reports from campaign events and more at our sister site, Iowa Independent. Read Lynda Waddington’s live blog of the Marion Ward 1, Precinct 1 caucus.

First, a look at today’s Reuters/C-SPAN daily poll. Will it hold up to the final results?

UPDATE: Obama and Huckabee win. Just 33 days until the Colorado caucus.

According to the crosstabs, certain events must happen for the leading candidates:

Barack Obama
A strong showing from eastern Iowa where 37 percent of his support comes from the Dubuque, Cedar Rapids and Davenport region.

Huge youth turnout. Half of poll respondents between the ages of 18-29 support Obama.

More than 54 percent of respondents who self-identify as atheists plan to caucus for him.

John Edwards
His stronghold is the more conservative western region with 32 percent though he’s hot in Clinton’s heels in the state’s mid-section.

Edwards beats his two frontrunning rivals with middle age adults with 62 percent of those between the ages of 30-64.

Supporters of Dennis Kucinich clearly break for Edwards as their second choice with an astounding 69 percent of caucus-goers.

Hillary Clinton
Big turn out in the central part of the state, including Des Moines and Ames.

Women and seniors are huge constituencies for Clinton. She scoops up nearly 40 percent of persons over the age of 70.

Stallwart labor voters who caucused for Dick Gephart in 2004. Clinton woos half of his previous supporters.

Mike Huckabee
Like his Arkansas political predecessor Hillary Clinton, Huckabee dominates in central Iowa.

Middle age adults are most attracted to his candidacy accounting for an shocking three-quarters of the age group.

Unsurprisingly, 43 percent of caucus-goers who self-identify as very conservative.

Mitt Romney
The ex-governor is one of the few candidates who draws geographic support equally from across the state.

Romney supporters tend to be older and wealthier with 34 percent over the age of 70 and 30 percent of persons earning more than $100K, respectively.

He also most benefits from second choice caucusing by Thompson and Giuliani fans.


Stay tuned for regular news updates from our sister site, Iowa Independent.

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Wendy Norris

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