Election In Progress: 43 Hours To Go Edition

As of the Sunday before the election, 525,080 votes had been cast, either through absentee ballots received by elections officials or early voting.  Another 277,169 absentee ballots are still outstanding and can be returned at any time prior to the close of the polls on Tuesday.  Statewide, by party affilation, the breakdown (excluding absentee ballots requested but not yet returned) is:

Democratic: 190,244
Republican: 221,287
Other: 113,549

Analysis and breakdowns in selected races appear below.Current party affiliations of registered voters in the state of Colorado are:

Republican – 1,066,956
Democrat – 896,861
Unaffiliated – 999,552
Libertarian – 6,555
Green – 4,946
Other – 975
Total: 2,975,845

The partisan affliation of voters who have requested absentee ballots that have not yet been received by election officials is:

Democratic: 95,561
Republican: 112,076
Other: 69,532

In 2002, the last off year general election, a total of 1,432,818 votes were cast, and if turnout is similar in 2006, then as much as 56% of the vote in 2006 could be cast by early or absentee ballots.

A Democrat needs about 64% of the unaffiliated vote to be winning a statewide race at this point, although this could be less if there are more Republican breaks from the party line than there are Democratic party breaks from the party line, and conventional wisdom has it that Democrats are less likely to vote early or absentee, and hence have an edge in the election day vote.

4th CD Angie Paccione (D) v. Marilyn Musgrave* (R)
(Also Eric Eidness (Reform))
Democratic: 27,821
Republican: 41,369
Other: 21,250

5th CD: Jay Fawcett (D) v. Doug Lamborn (R)
Democratic: 13,800
Republican: 32,073
Other: 10,728

7th CD: Ed Perlmutter (D)  v. Rick O’Donnell (R)
Democratic: 31,657
Republican: 30,382
Other: 15,721

Selected State Senate Races:

SD-5:Lewis Entz* (R) vs. Gail Schwartz (D)
Democratic: 3,544
Republican: 5,159
Other: 2,540

SD-11:Ed Jones* (R) vs. John Morse (D)
Democratic: 2,525
Republican: 3,325
Other: 1,517

SD-21:Betty Boyd* (D) vs. Matt Knoedler (R)
Democratic: 6,949
Republican: 6,824
Other: 3,458

Selected State House Races:

HD-17: Aimee Rathburn (R) vs. Jeanne Labuda (D)
Democratic: 3,126
Republican: 2,321
Other: 1,640

HD-17: Mark Cloer* (R) vs. Christine Varney (D)
Democratic: 686
Republican: 983
Other: 407

HD-23: Ramey Johnson (R) vs. Gwen Green* (D)
Democratic: 3,452
Republican: 3,476
Other: 1,760

HD-26: Andy Kerr* (D) vs. Glenn Rhoades (R)
Democratic: 4,088
Republican: 3,761
Other: 1,906

HD-27: Bill Crane* (R) vs. Sara Gagliardi (D)
Democratic: 4,386
Republican: 5,367
Other: 2,416

HD-29: Debbie Benefield* (D) vs. Affie Ellis (R)
Democratic: 3,532
Republican: 3,765
Other: 1,930

HD-33: Bill Berens* (R) vs. Dianne Primavera (D)
Democratic: 3,918
Republican: 4,710
Other: 2,901

HD-50: Dave Owen (R) vs. James Reisberg* (D)
Democratic: 1,776
Republican: 2,277
Other: 1,335

HD-52: John Kefalas (D) vs. Bob McCluskey* (R)
Democratic: 4,757
Republican: 5,470
Other: 3,243

HD-53: Randy Fischer (D) vs. Anne Yeldell (R)
Democratic: 3,401
Republican: 3,677
Other: 2,456

HD-55: Bernie Buescher* (D) vs. Bob Caskey (R)
Democratic: 2,351
Republican: 4,135
Other: 1,552

HD-56: Ken Chlouber (R) vs. Dan Gibbs (D)
Democratic: 1,647
Republican: 2,282
Other: 1,719

HD-59: Joe Colgan (D) vs Ellen Roberts (R)
Democratic: 3,232
Republican: 3,327
Other: 1,920

Keep in mind that the numbers above only indicate the voter registration of persons who have cast their votes.  They are neither exit polls, nor surveys of how people are likely to vote in a particular race.

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Andrew Oh-Willeke

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