Reality vs. Perception with Peggy and Ed

Only hours before a 9News SurveyUSA poll showing Ed Perlmutter ahead by 20 points was due to hit the press, another poll of the Seventh Congressional District was released showing Peggy Lamm with an 8 point lead.

To the casual observer, these contradicting poll results might create the appearance of a tight race.  Even to the mathematically challenged, a difference of nearly 30 points means it could be anybody’s race.

But in the game of politics, where perception can mean everything, were these dueling polls actually the product of calculated spin?EMILY’s List, a group which supports pro-choice women commissioned and released the poll showing Lamm in the lead.  Not only did EMILY’s list endorse Lamm long ago, she’s all over the front page of EMILY’s List web site, complete with an image exclaiming “6 days until Peggy Lamm’s August 8 primary” asking for donations.

The EMILY’s List poll was also conducted over a month ago on June 28-29.  Compare this to the SurveyUSA poll showing the Perlmutter lead.  It was commissioned by an non-partisan firm last weekend on July 29-31.

Did it really take Emily’s list one month to calculate the results of their data, or were the sitting on it until an opportune time arose?

There are still problems with the SurveyUSA poll showing Perlmutter with the commanding 51%-31% lead.  The poll reports only 16% of responded are 65 or older.  Ever go to local Dem meetings?  Older folks tend to vote heavily in primaries.  Also, it’s hard to buy the fifty-fifty split of men and women.

Casting more doubt, the SurveyUSA poll was conducted before Lamm released her ad chastising Perlmutter for a 2001 vote on a bill extending the statue of limitations on sexual assaults.  Perlmutter continued his defense in the Rocky Mountain News, countering with a slew of “Democratic women and victim assistance advocates” telling Lamm she should be ashamed of resorting to this level of attack.

Team Perlmutter wins two points in this Rocky piece.  One, only the SurveyUSA poll was reported.  Two, for getting their spin in to print:

But the overwhelming blowback against Lamm’s ads show the danger that candidates put themselves in when they start slinging mud.

The “overwhelming” blowback: real or perception.

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