A new report by the PEW Research Center confirms what rising primary turnout is already telling us: there is a huge demographic shift approaching in the electorate in the form of the Millennial Generation, and that shift will largely benefit the Democratic Party, writes our Center for Independent Media colleague, Mike Connery.Connery parses the data:
As the PEW data indicates, this is a shift that is occurring among almost all segments of the Millennial generation, but the shift along gender lines seems to be most significant. Among young voters (18 – 29 year olds), in the last 16 years, young women have moved from a +8 advantage for the Democrats (50 – 42%) to an incredible +35 point advantage (63 – 28%). Among young men, that partisan identification has moved from a 10 point deficit (42 – 52% Republican) to a 14 point advantage (52 – 38%).
These are seismic shifts in the electorate and they are hugely significant.
In the 1980s and early 1990s, it was Generation X and the late Baby Boomers who occupied the 18 – 29 year olds slot in the electorate. They were very conservative as a group and helped elect Reagan and Bush Sr., and usher in the Gingrich Revolution. That laid the groundwork for the Republican majorities we have suffered through these last two decades.
Read the rest of his analysis on the PEW report here.