Based not at all on politics nor inside information nor gut instinct, just a simple examination of a few tea leaves, here’s my crystal ball on Obama’s pick for VP.
Most reports indicate that Obama has already decided on a running mate, and he’ll announce that choice by Saturday. Over the next 24 hours his campaign stops in Virginia on Friday, and has a huge rally planned on Saturday back in Springfield, IL, where Obama announced his campaign for president last year.
The Virginia stop could mean that Obama will announce he’s chosen Governor Tim Kane as his running mate, but then the huge rally in Springfield doesn’t make much sense. Why go to a state firmly in the blue column with only a few short months until the election? Especially the day after you make one of biggest announcements of the campaign?
Springfield has symbolism, and a campaign would only chose a symbolic location over a politically helpful one if the VP doesn’t come from a swing state. What good would a huge rally do in, for example, Delaware, a state that’s voted for the Democratic candidate since 1992? Running up the margin doesn’t make a difference with the electoral college.
Obama’s current short-list for VP, according to CBS News, includes Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, Kansa s Governor Kathleen Sebelius, Virginia Governor Tim Kane, and Delaware Senator Joe Biden — all potentially competitive states except Delaware. According to George Stephanopoulos, the Obama campaign has signaled that their pick will have “instantly recognizable national security experience.” While this could potentially include Bayh, Biden has far more gravitas on matters of foreign policy.
And, as the Rocky reported today a dark horse, Texas Rep. Chet Edwards, is also in the mix.
Still, my crystal ball predicts that Obama has chosen Biden as his running mate. Ta da! I know, not much of a surprise for people following the race, but sometimes the least surprising answer is the right one. (And for those of you REALLY following this story, yes, I think it’s Biden despite some half-hearted claims he’s made to the contrary.)
I hope my text message comes soon!
Colorado Independent’s blog-i-nist (blogger-columnist) Jeff Bridges has worked in Democratic politics for the last 10 years, serving as communications director for two congressional races in Colorado and two governors races in the Deep South. Bridges also worked for Sen. Ken Salazar as a legislative assistant in DC, and currently serves on the board of directors for New Era Colorado and the Colorado Conservation Voters.