The surprise news that Republican Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier is planning to drop out of the race to unseat U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet in order to challenge popular Colorado U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter in the solidly Democratic 7th District has had observer-bloggers scratching their heads. But suddenly we have a theory that compels.
The GOP isn’t likely to win anything but a nod in the 7th, but maybe by moving good-soldier Frazier into the void there, where Perlmutter has remained unchallenged, GOP strategists will force the Democratic Party to divert resources that are now funneling toward the shaky 4th District, where Democratic moderate freshman Rep. Betsy Markey presides over former deep-red Musgrave territory. Like Jared Polis, who represents the safely Democratic 2nd District, Perlmutter has reportedly felt secure enough to be donating to Markey’s campaign. This is a state of affairs the GOP must work to change.
[I]n a crowded Republican primary for Senate, the odds are better that Frazier could emerge as the GOP nominee than they are that Frazier could win a head-to-head battle against a popular and well-funded two-term incumbent Perlmutter. Frazier pushed all his chips on the table when he announced he was running for the U.S. Senate, and pulling them back now to run for congress doesn’t improve his odds at being elected — it only reduces the size of the pot.
It would have made a lot more sense for Frazier to run against Perlmutter from the beginning, rather than attempting a U.S. Senate bid. But since he’s already chosen the Senate, he might as well stay on that path. Frazier probably can’t win the GOP nomination for Senate, but he also can’t likely win the congressional seat in CD-7. So he might as well stick with the one that has the bigger payoff.
Half-way down the comments thread begins to get onto something:
It is a good move…
Frazier seems to be banking on the idea that 2010 will be a good Republican year. Whether it will be or not remains to be seen, but at least by moving to 7, Frazier accomplishes two things. 1.) He gets to stay in the game past the primary, where he really didn’t stand much chance against Norton. 2.) He helps his fundraising woes by moving into a position where he is the undisputed front runner and I assume there are also some Norton supporters who will help Frazier as a way to thank him for being a good soldier and clearing the field for Norton.
If the election were held today, Frazier would stand no chance against Perlmutter. Still, a lot can happen between now and 2010. If the Democrats can’t get past their infighting and give Republicans easy pot shots from the outside, Frazier is at least in a better position to take advantage.
Finally, out comes this gem:
This is about CD-4
as I pointed out in another thread, whether Frazier knows it or not. Wadhams is finally starting to show some game.
This is really about CD-4 and helping the NRCC, by forcing the DCCC to play defense in two districts while going on offense in the one that really counts to them.
True? False? Off the mark? Over thought? It’s all a days work in politics-observer-strategy-guesswork bloggerland.