The long march of gay marriage

Gay marriage advocates may have lost a number of battles at the ballot box this past year, but it appears they’re winning the war. Nate Silver reports that American opinion on the matter is equally divided and has trended in only one direction.

From Nate Silver:

Here is a version of the graph we produced in 2009, but updated to include the dozen or so polls that have been conducted on it since that time, as listed by pollingreport.com. I have also included opinions on gay marriage from the General Social Survey, which asked about gay marriage as long ago as 1988.

The LOESS regression line now shows 50 percent opposed to gay marriage and 49 percent in support — basically too close to call.

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