The National Journal’s Reid Wilson this morning quoted a lot of “Democratic operatives” and “prominent pollsters” in a piece about the high-toxicity of the president for Democrats running in so-called frontline districts– that is, districts the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee most fears will be lost to Republicans in November. There’s no reason to second-guess Wilson. Obama’s polling is at a new low and frontline Democratic incumbents like Betsy Markey in Colorado’s Fourth District have been weathering attacks on Obama for more than a year. Those attacks are going to get worse.
Wilson: “A prominent Democratic pollster is circulating a survey that shows George W. Bush is 6 points more popular than President Obama in ‘frontline’ districts… That Bush is more popular than Obama in Democratic-held seats is cause for outright fear.”
“[Obama] is a walking radioactive disaster,” says one of Wilson’s Democratic operatives asked to offer advice to Representatives like Markey.
Worse is that strategists talking to Wilson felt compelled to offer the following advice, which in its deadpan quality has more power than outright calling the president a radioactive disaster:
What’s more, virtually every Democratic strategist agreed, if the president of the United States shows up in a candidate’s home state, the candidate should show up too. Dodging Obama by claiming a scheduling conflict only breeds more stories about how much of a drag he is, and about how desperate Democrats are to avoid him.
But the strategists Wilson talked to also reminded him that all politics is local, that “establishing a connection to one’s constituents is a better insulation from a wave election than anything else.”
Which is why tea party-wooing GOP Missouri Senate candidate Roy Blunt won’t likely see much of a bump among moderates with this ad about Obama’s “support for the Ground Zero mosque,” which is surely part of the reason why he has stopped running the ad.