New poll shows a very tight race for governor

A new survey released today shows American Constitution Party candidate for governor Tom Tancredo in a virtual tie with the presumed front-runner, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.

The Magellan Poll (click here for pdf) of 1,067 likely voters was conducted Wednesday evening by phone. It shows Hickenlooper leading Tancredo 44-43, with 9 percent saying they will vote for Republican Dan Maes. Another 4 percent said they are undecided or will vote for someone else.

Magellan is considered a Republican polling firm.

“Magellan tends to weight their polls so they are Republican-leaning,” said Colorado Democratic Party Chair Pat Waak. “They are trying to show that they can win this, but I don’t think they can.”

She said the internal polling she has seen has Hickenlooper winning comfortably.

According to the Magellan poll, 38 percent of people responding to the poll self-identified as Republicans, with 35 percent calling themselves Democrats.

In this poll, women favor Hickenlooper 49-38-9, while men go for Tancredo 50-39-9. Unaffiliated voters said they favored Tancredo over Hickenlooper by 46-38 percent.

In a press release, Magellan said it is clear that former Maes supporters are moving to Tancredo en masse. “If trends continue,” the release says, “it would not be surprising to find the final vote totals showing Dan Maes at 5 percent or less, and Tom Tancredo surging past John Hickenlooper.”

“The momentum just keeps picking up for us,” said Tancredo running mate Pat Miller.

“It’s like a zoo in here. People are calling to volunteer, wanting to drive people to the polls, wanting to do anything they can,” she said.

Asked if she had heard anything new about the possibility of Maes dropping out, she said, “Maes is not going to drop out, but it doesn’t matter because we are going to win anyway.

“It’s just so exciting. It has been a real whirlwind. This is what is so wonderful about a grassroots campaign — just seeing how excited everyone is. People have been depressed about the economy and the way things are going in Washington, but with this campaign they have something to be excited about again,” she said.

“We’re going to keep our eye on one poll: the one taken on election day,” said Hickenlooper campaign communications director George Merritt, by email.

Scot Kersgaard has been managing editor of a political newspaper, editor and co-owner of a ski town newspaper, executive editor of eight high-tech magazines (where he worked with current Apple CEO Tim Cook), deputy press secretary to a U.S. Senator, and an outdoors columnist at the Rocky Mountain News. He has an English degree from the University of Washington. He was awarded a fellowship to study internet journalism at the University of Maryland's Knight Center for Specialized Journalism. He was student body president in college. He spends his free time hiking and skiing.

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