PPP puts Buck ahead by one point; Bennet leads in votes cast

The Colorado U.S. Senate race pitting Democrat Michael Bennet against Republican Ken Buck is the most expensive and closest race in the country. A day before the election, Public Policy Polling puts Buck 1 point ahead of Bennet, the latest in the see-sawing that has characterized polling in the race over the past weeks. PPP reports that Bennet so far leads solidly among voters who have already cast their ballots. PPP reports that 66 percent of the respondents to the survey it conducted this weekend had already cast votes.

This race will be decided by voter turn out. In other words, it is a contest between Tea Party enthusiasm and Democratic Party and progressive activist get out the vote efforts.

From PPP:

The Senate race in Colorado continues to look like it will be one of the closest in the country on Tuesday night. PPP’s final poll there finds Ken Buck ahead of Michael Bennet by the slimmest of margins, 49-48.

Each candidate has his party base pretty much sewn up. Bennet is winning 87% of Democrats and Buck is winning 86% of Republicans. Giving Buck his slim lead is a 50-46 advantage among independents.

One thing interesting to note within the results is that with respondents who say they’ve already voted- accounting for 66% of the sample- Bennet is actually ahead by a 52-46 margin. Buck leads 55-41 with those who say they have not yet cast their ballots. Bennet should probably be rooting for ugly weather on election day, any little thing could help in such a close race if he already has a lead in the bank.

[…]

“The Colorado Senate contest is really a base election,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Neither candidate has much in the way of crossover appeal so it’s all going to come down to whether more Democrats or Republicans vote.”

PPP surveyed 1,059 likely Colorado voters on October 30 and 31 and reports the margin of error for the survey at +/- 3 percent.

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