Dueling polls in CO gubernatorial race

 

In contrast to today’s Quinnipiac poll putting Democratic incumbent Governor John Hickenlooper ten points behind his Republican challenger, former Congressman Bob Beauprez, Project New America, a left-leaning Denver-based research and polling firm, has released a poll showing Beauprez seven points down.

At a sample size of 1,350, the New America poll is just about the same size as Quinnipiac’s (1,211), but 13 percent of the folks New America talked to were Hispanic compared to just eight percent of those polled by Quinnipiac. New America also polled three percent more women than Quinipiac, a move pollster Andrew Myers said was intentional. 

It is incredibly important to make sure enough women and Hispanic voters are included to match the statewide demographics,” Myers is quoted in the poll’s release. “Those two groups are critical to decide who wins in Colorado.”

In addition to polling more women and Hispanic voters, New America also reached out to slightly more Democrats (32 percent vs. 27) and fewer Republicans (32 percent vs. 34) than Quinnipiac. The polls have similar margins of error — New America +/- 2.7% and Quinnipiac +/- 2.8%.

The Denver Post, which did a poll on the race through SurveyUSA during about the same period at the beginning of September, has Hickenlooper and Beauprez in a statistical dead heat, which is more or less what you get if you average the New America and Quinnipiac polls.

Project New America also polled the same voters on the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Congressman Cory Gardner. In that race the New America poll puts Udall two points ahead — a statistical tie — but more interestingly notes that, “It is clear that the highly negative nature of that race has damaged the personal standing of both candidates; by a 6-point margin both candidates’ negative ratings outweigh their positive ratings…” 

Qunnipiac is expected to release its figures on the Senate race this week.

 

[Lydgate’s Wheel of Fortune via Wikimedia Commons]

1 COMMENT

  1. It’s interesting to note that a search of the Colorado Independent website shows that polling from Project New America, a left-leaning Denver-based research and polling firm, has only been referenced four times, the last time almost two years ago.

    While polling from Quinnipiac has been referenced thirty-six times—ten this year alone–and their results and methodology have been praised by the esteemed polling guru Nate Silver.

    So why, now, would the Colorado Independent feel the need to offer a poll with results conflicting with those offered by Quinnipiac? Could the results of the Quinnipiac poll be the reason? Results showing Mr. Beauprez ahead of Governor Hickenlooper by a number outside of the margin of error.

    The Colorado Independent has never previously sought to challenge Quinnipiac’s numbers, much less challenge them with numbers from a left-leaning polling firm.

    Would the Quinnipiac polling results have been challenged had they shown Governor Hickenlooper ahead by a similar margin?

    I’m sure the author will let us know.

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